¶11. According to Wis. Stat. § 980.08(4), the circuit court starts in the position of having to grant a petition for supervised release. The circuit court does not have to grant the petition if the State proves by clear and convincing evidence that the person is still a sexually violent person and that it is substantially probable that the person will engage in acts of sexual violence if the person is not continued in institutional care. “Substantially probable” means “much more likely than not.”5 The statute also sets forth four factors a circuit court may consider, along with other factors, in making its determination.¶12. Thus, if the circuit court decides that the State has failed to meet its burden, the circuit court does not have any option: It “shall” grant Brown’s petition for supervised release. If the circuit court decides, however, that the evidence is sufficient to prove the State’s case by clear and convincing evidence, then the circuit court must deny Brown’s petition.